Bitcoin just broke every major volume support in a single brutal move. The Value Area Low and Point of Control on the daily and monthly charts are gone. Nearly $2 billion in positions were wiped out in the last 24 hours. This is not a “healthy correction.” This is a full-blown capitulation.
Yet the most oversold readings since the 2022 FTX collapse are flashing at the exact same time. The market is screaming two completely opposite messages: extreme danger and extreme opportunity.
Here is the unfiltered truth of where we are, where price is going next, and exactly where the highest-probability long entries sit right now.
Why This Breakdown Is Different – Volume Profile Collapse
Most retail traders look only at price and candles. Professionals watch volume profile first.
The current monthly Value Area Low sat at ≈$92,800 and the Point of Control (the price where most volume traded) was ≈$94,700. Both were demolished in one session. When POC and VAL break together on high timeframes, the next move is almost always violent and sustained in the direction of the break.
We saw the exact same setup in May 2021 (China mining ban), November 2021 (peak blow-off), and November 2022 (FTX). Every single time price fell another 25–45% after the POC/VAL break.
That alone is the biggest red flag on the board right now.
Elliott Wave Structure: We Are Deep in Wave 3 of a Larger Impulsive Decline
On the daily logarithmic chart, Bitcoin is tracing a textbook five-wave impulsive decline from the all-time high.
- Wave 1: Sharp drop from $108,900 to ≈$92,000
- Wave 2: ABC bounce back to $103,400 (0.786 retracement – classic)
- Wave 3: Currently unfolding – the longest and strongest wave
Third waves almost always reach at least the 1.618 extension of wave 1, measured from the wave 2 high.
That target comes in at $79,800 – $80,200 on the linear scale (exactly where the next daily + weekly high-timeframe support cluster sits).
The 1.618 extension on the log scale is slightly higher at ≈$83,500, but linear scale has been more accurate in 2024–2025.
Conclusion: $80,000 ± $1,000 is the highest-probability termination zone for wave 3.
$2 Billion Liquidations in 24 Hours – The Pain Is Real
As of November 21, 2025, the past 24-hour liquidation heatmap shows:
- $1.92 billion total liquidations
- $1.61 billion long liquidations (84%)
- $312 million short liquidations
Longs got absolutely destroyed. This is the third-largest single-day liquidation event ever recorded, behind only March 2020 and May 2021.
When leverage gets flushed this hard, the bottom is usually close – but not always immediate. We often get one final leg lower to take out the late longs who “bought the dip” too early.
RSI Readings Haven’t Been This Oversold Since the 2022 Bottom
Daily RSI: 21 2-day RSI: 24 3-day RSI: 28 Weekly RSI: approaching 35
The last time the daily RSI closed under 22 was November 2022 – Bitcoin bottomed at $15,500 and then ran to $108,900 (+600%).
The last time the 2-day RSI was this low was March 2020 – Bitcoin bottomed two weeks later and ran 18x in 18 months.
History doesn’t repeat, but it absolutely rhymes.
Money Flow Index Confirming Capitulation
The Money Flow Index (MFI) on daily and 2-day timeframes is now under 15 – levels only seen at major cycle lows.
Every previous time MFI dropped below 16 on the daily:
- March 2020 → +1,800% in 12 months
- November 2022 → +550% in 24 months
- June 2022 → +180% in 15 months
Current reading: 13.8
Crypto Fear & Greed Index Hits 11 – Lowest Since FTX Collapse
Extreme Fear below 20 has occurred only occurred a handful of times:
- March 2020: 8
- June 2022: 7
- November 2022: 10
- May 2025 LUNA 2.0 crash: 9
- November 21, 2025: 11
Every single instance marked a major low within 0–21 days.
Exact Bitcoin Price Targets – Where the Next Real Support Lives
Primary target (Wave 3 termination): $79,500 – $80,200 (Confluence: 1.618 extension + weekly VAL + daily POC cluster)
Secondary target if we overshoot): $74,000 – $75,000 (2.0 extension + 2024 yearly open + major psychological level)
Wave 4 bounce target after wave 3 completes: $88,000 – $92,000 (0.382–0.5 retracement zone)
Wave 5 final target (most bearish case): $62,000 – $65,000 (Only if macro liquidity crisis hits – not base case)
Ethereum Is About to Tag the Golden Pocket – $2,400–$2,450
Ethereum is lagging Bitcoin slightly but following the same script.
The 0.618–0.65 retracement of the entire 2024–2025 rally sits at $2,400 – $2,450 and perfectly aligns with:
- Monthly Value Area Low
- Anchored VWAP from March 2023 low
- Daily + weekly support cluster
ETH/BTC ratio is also testing the 0.618 retracement at 0.024 – a level that held in every previous bear market.
If Ethereum holds $2,400, it will likely outperform Bitcoin massively on the next leg up.
Trading Plan: How I’m Positioning Right Now (November 21, 2025)
- Core long positions already open from $94k–$98k (currently underwater)
- Adding aggressively at $80,000 ± $1,500 on Bitcoin
- Adding aggressively at $2,400–$2,450 on Ethereum
- Will add final tranche only if we hit $74k–$75k (very low probability)
- Stop loss for all new entries: $76,900 (invalidates wave count)
I am not shorting. I am not panic selling. I am buying the blood.
Why Buying This Dip Is Statistically the Highest-EV Move
- 100% of previous daily RSI < 22 readings led to +100% or greater returns within 18 months
- 100% of $1.5B+ single-day liquidation events marked cycle lows within 30 days
- 100% of Fear & Greed < 15 readings marked major bottoms
The crowd is maximally bearish. Leverage is flushed. Indicators are screaming oversold. Volume profile supports are about to be tested.
This is exactly when smart money accumulates.
Final Warning – But Also Final Opportunity
Yes, Bitcoin can still go to $80k or even lower in the coming days. That is the bear case and it is valid.
But every major metric that has ever marked a bear market bottom is flashing right now.
The pain is real. The fear is real. The liquidations are real.
And that is exactly why the next 50–100% move is almost certainly going to be violently higher.
Buy the fear. Survive the wave 3. Get rich in wave 5 (of the larger bull cycle).
The 2025 bear trap is being set. Don’t be the retail trader who sells at the bottom.
The whales are accumulating right now while you panic.
Choose which side of that trade you want to be on.
