Todays chanakya.com Maharashtra Haryana State Assembly Elections 2014 Exit Poll 1


Maharashtra
Party Vote 2009 Seat 2009 Vote 2014 Seat 2014
(Forecast) (Forecast)
BJP+ 14% 46 31% ± 3% 151 ± 9 (Plus / Minus 9)
Shivsena 16.20% 44 24% ± 3% 71 ± 9 (Plus / Minus 9)
Congress 21% 82 20% ± 3% 27 ± 5 (Plus / Minus 5)
NCP 16.30% 62 15% ± 3% 28 ± 5 (Plus / Minus 5)
MNS & Others 32.50% 54 10% ± 3% 11 ± 5 (Plus / Minus 5)

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Analysis on Maharashtra How major caste is moving in this election

—————————–>BJP+     Shivsena     Congress     NCP
Baniya / Brahmin     65%            8%               12%          9%
Maratha—————-  24%           31%                13%         22%
Muslim  —————-  14%             4%                 61%         15%
OBC  —————- —-  45%           18%               12%          11%
SC ————————-   32%          8%                  36%         13%
ST—————- ———    34%         19%               21%          14%
Other Caste  ———-     44%        18%                16%           13%

Note:
1. The total is not 100% because balance is “Other party & DNT”
2. Margin of Error is ± 3% (Plus / Minus 3%) in all caste figures.
1. Do you want a change of government in the state?

Yes : 65%
No : 28%

2. Do you feel that “Modi Magic” is still present & can bring a change?

Yes : 63%
No : 29%

3. What had an influence in deciding on your voting pattern?

Political Party & Candidate : 39%
Corruption level : 23%
State govt. policies / issues : 22%
Any other : 9%
Todays chanakya.com Maharashtra Haryana State Assembly Elections 2014 Exit Poll
Note: In all the above, the total is not 100% because balance is Cant Say / Don’t want to say.

Analysis on Haryana in Assembly Elections 2014 Exit Poll

How major caste is moving in this election

—————————->BJP     INLD+     Congress
Baniya / Brahmin      59%     11%     14%
Jat  —————- ——   22%     45%     28%
SC  —————- ——     31%     14%     41%
OBC  —————- ——  55%     21%     18%
Punjabi / Sikh ———-49%     19%     21%
Other Caste————–  58%     18%     15%

Note:
1. The total is not 100% because balance is “Other party & DNT”
2. Margin of Error is ± 3% (Plus / Minus 3%) in all caste figures.
1. Do you want a change of government in the state?

Yes : 54%
No : 30%

2. Do you feel that “Modi Magic” is still present & can bring a change?

Yes : 59%
No : 31%

3. What had an influence in deciding on your voting pattern?

Political Party & Candidate : 44%
Corruption level : 18%
State govt. policies / issues : 21%
Any other : 13%

Haryana
Party Vote 2009 Seat 2009 Vote 2014 Seat 2014
(Forecast) (Forecast)
BJP 9% 4 32% ± 3% 52 ± 7 (Plus / Minus 7)
INLD+ 26.70% 32 26% ± 3% 23 ± 7 (Plus / Minus 7)
Congress 35% 40 23% ± 3% 10 ± 5 (Plus / Minus 5)
Others 29.30% 14 19% ± 3% 5 ± 3 (Plus / Minus 3)

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One thought on “Todays chanakya.com Maharashtra Haryana State Assembly Elections 2014 Exit Poll

  • Dr Rajeev Joshi

    I think there is more to BJP-SS split than what meets the eye. The exit polls suggest that BJP will win more percent of seats from vidharbha, and SS will get more seats from Mumbai and nearby areas. If BJP gets absolute majority, it will go for separate Vidharbha State. What will happen to majority in Vidharbha state and rest of Maharashtra? If SS gets majority in rest of Maharashtra, will it oppose the separation of Vidharbha? What did Uddhav Thakare want? Chief minister-ship of Maharashtra. And he will get it if Maharashtra is split. Now what remains is to decide which districts on border will go to which state? Will that depend on which district voted for which party? If that is the formula, then the split will become smooth..!!